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Sunday 26 June 2016

England v Iceland (2000 BST)

If the pattern of the day's first last-16 clash can be predicted quite confidently, then we can also be fairly sure about who is going to dominate the possession statistics when England face Iceland for the third time in their history at the Allianz Riviera.
Roy Hodgson's side saw the majority of the ball in their opening 1-1 draw with Russia and enjoyed more than 60% in both subsequent matches, though failing to make it count and drawing a blank against Slovakia in their final Group B match ultimately cost them top spot.
Before getting onto the consideration of whether or not England represent anything in the way of value as 11/20 favourites to see off opponents vastly inferior to themselves from a technical perspective, it's worth stressing the importance of this game to the Icelandic nation.
Veteran striker Eidur Gudjohnsen certainly wasn't in the mood for playing things down, billing it "the biggest game in footballing history for Iceland" and it's impossible to disagree with his statement.
The country's population is estimated to be a little over 300,000, roughly equivalent to that of the Merseyside district of the Wirral, and although FIFA rank them as the 47th best side in the world, they've enjoyed a remarkable couple of years under managers Lars Lagerback and Heimir Hallgrímsson.
A team renowned for their organisation and defensive solidarity, they conceded just six goals in their 10 qualification matches en route to finishing second behind Czech Republic in their section, reducing Turkey to third place and the Netherlands to fourth.
Along the way Iceland beat Turkey 3-0 in their opening encounter and twice saw off the Netherlands to nil.
They've not lost any momentum under the spotlight of finals football either, registering 1-1 draws with Portugal and Hungary before a famous 2-1 win over Austria last Wednesday.
Punters can get odds close to 2/1 for the trend to continue and both teams to find the net on Monday night.
Whereas Iceland have yet to make any changes to their tightly-knit starting XI, Hodgson's decision to rotate in England's final group match has at least kept a large number of his squad match-fit and fighting for places.
Nathaniel Clyne did extremely well when called upon at right back last time and Jordan Henderson is never one to let the side side down, but it's widely expected that the team will be mainly comprised of those who started the first two, with Daniel Sturridge an exception and set to keep his place ahead of a clearly struggling Raheem Sterling.
Sturridge's goals-to-appearances record stands out (6-19) and although Harry Kane's likely presence in the central forward role means he'll be primarily operating from the wing, that's a position he knows well and enjoyed some of his finer days in a Liverpool shirt when playing on the shoulder of Luis Suarez.
Sturridge and the host of attacking options available to Hodgson are all skinny prices to make a scoring impact but will not be afforded space, and instead it looks extremely likely that England will have to once again play the patient game.
There are several eyecatching betting opportunities with that in mind, including draw/England in the half-time market, England to win to nil, or even 1-0 correct score, though preference is to seek out some value from the list of potential first goalscorers, with a nod to 'no goalscorer' (a best price 13/2) on the way.
Adam Lallana has undoubtedly been one of the pleasant surprises in this England side, no doubt pleasing his club manager by showing a willing attitude to close the ball down in dangerous areas at all times and frequently popping up in the right place at the right time.
Considering how many chances have come his way it's disappointing he's yet to convert and the fact he's still searching for his first goal in an England shirt tempers enthusiasm here.
The centre-backs, Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill, are worthy of respect, as is always the case in a game expected to feature a hefty number of corners and set-pieces from wide areas.
Smalling registered the only goal of the game in the final warm-up friendly against Portugal and Cahill's record from close range in a Chelsea shirt merits a second look, though the last of his three England goals was in May 2014.
Available at even longer odds than this pair is Eric Dier and he looks worth having on side to open the scoring.
That he did so against Russia may seem like the horse has bolted rather but the price (33/1 with one firm offering five places, 1/3 the odds to each-way backers) looks out of line and makes him hard to ignore.
The Tottenham man has become a firm fixture in the heart of Hodgson's midfield and has already proven his ability to score from range for club and country.
He's presumably still on free-kick duties around the penalty area and he's excellent in the air, something we witnessed in the dying moments of England's memorable 3-2 friendly win over Germany in March.
The Three Lions may well be excellent value to win the match and there's no real temptation to side with Iceland to qualify at 4s, but watching England can be painful enough without taking a short price about them finally delivering on their immense promise and a small interest on Dier appeals greatly at this stage.

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